Xugong Machinery (000425): Sales of cranes exceed expected performance of the faucet elastically accelerated release!

Xugong Machinery (000425): Sales of cranes exceed expected performance of the faucet elastically accelerated release!

High growth of crane relay excavators, the industry boom is expected to continue until 2020 January to February 2019, high growth of crane relay excavators, the industry boom is expected to continue until 2020.

Taking into account the Spring Festival factors, we believe that the total sales volume from January to February is more representative of the industry.

From January to February, the sales volume of truck cranes in the industry was 5,784 units, an increase of 58 each year.

38%, truck-mounted crane sales 3,561 units, an increase of 66 every year.

95%, 418 crawler cranes sold, an increase of 99 each year.

05%, continuing the 18-year high growth trend.

In terms of sales structure, the proportion of truck-mounted cranes has increased. Considering that truck-mounted cranes have both transportation functions and truck-mounted lifting functions, the cost advantage is more obvious, or it will form a certain substitute for truck cranes.

Similar to excavators, the recovery momentum of this round of crane industry also includes factors such as environmental protection (national standard switching), renewal requirements, and infrastructure volume. However, in terms of construction sequence and update pace, the crane is slightly behind the excavator. It is expected that 2019-2020For the intensive update period, the 2020H2 national standard switchover and the 2018H2 intensive launch of infrastructure projects have entered the centralized construction period. It is expected that the crane boom cycle of this round is expected to exceed expectations.

The industry concentration has continued to increase, and competition is full and sufficient. The barriers to entry have been raised from 16 to 19 months ago. The CR3 truck crane (XCMG + Trinity + Zhonglian) has been increased from 85.

29% increased to 93.

48%, CR5 consists of 94.

13% increased to 99.

19%, the industry is fully competitive, and barriers to entry have been raised.

At the company level, XCMG continued to maintain the top position, with the truck crane market accounting for more than 40%, and the truck crane market accounting for a higher proportion. Second, 19 months and two months ago, Sany truck crane accounting for 26.

30%, an increase of 3.
.

97pct, ranking second in the industry, with a market share of 25.

86%, ranking third in the industry.

XCMG: The 2018 performance was slightly better than expected, and the profitability in 2019 will remain flexible. 1) The crane market share has ranked first in the industry for many years, and new product development has helped to consolidate its advantages.

As of 18 years, the company’s crane market accounted for another 40%, ranking first in the industry.

In 2017, the company’s market share in large-tonnage mobile cranes above 100 tons reached 55.

At 6%, all-terrain cranes above the 1,000-ton level have completely replaced imports to form a market-leading advantage.

With the product upgrade to the G series, efficiency, accuracy and safety have been greatly improved.

2) Price reduction of raw materials + repair of balance sheet, profit elasticity will increase in 2019.

The company’s gross profit margin over the years has shown a significant negative correlation with the proportion of raw material costs. Since the third quarter of 2018, steel prices have continued to fall, which is expected to drive the company’s gross profit margin to increase.

At the same time, the company’s capital structure and operating capabilities have achieved breakthroughs, and the positive effects brought about by the earlier increase in sales policies have gradually evolved. The ageing of accounts receivables has gradually been optimized. It is expected that the balance sheet repair will come to an end and the 19-year profit flexibility will continue to increase.

3) Layout AWP + pump valve, the income structure is constantly optimized, 上海夜网论坛 and the self-made core components drive the profit.

Net proceeds raised in the company’s non-public offering in 18 years.

900 million, aerial platforms and hydraulic valves are the key layout directions, and the investment of the two accounts for about 50%.

At present, domestic high-altitude operation platforms have low penetration and are in a rapid growth stage. High-end hydraulic valves are in the domestic replacement stage, and the market space is broad.

Conducive to improving business conditions.

4) Mixed reforms improve corporate vitality, and the Group’s prospects for high-quality assets are securitized.

In August 2018, the company’s controlling shareholder was included in the “Double Hundred Enterprises” list, and new progress is expected to be made in the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future.

In addition, the excavation machinery division is one of the group’s core enterprises, with a market share of 5% from 16 years?
The 6% level rose to 11 in 18 years.

5%, which rose to more than 12% in the first two months of 19, ranking third in the industry.

With the continuous progress of mixed reforms in the future, high-quality assets are expected to be securitized, and the company’s comprehensive competitiveness will be further enhanced.

Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that the crane industry’s growth rate exceeded expectations, the company benefited from multiple positive factors such as the industry’s high growth dividend and price reduction of raw materials. The company raised its profit forecast and expected the company’s net profit to be 20 in 2018-2020.
500 million (previous value was 20.

5 billion), 30.
500 million (previous value was 25.

3 billion) and 40.

400 million (previous value was 30.

300 million), adjusted EPS is 0.

26 yuan, 0.

39 yuan and 0.

52 yuan, corresponding to PE is 16 times, 11 times and 10 times, continue to recommend, maintain “Buy” rating!

Risk reminders: Infrastructure construction landed faster than expected, industry competition intensified, and raw material prices fluctuated.